Despite Recession Risks, Provinces Poised For Growth

Canada’s provinces will continue to see gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2022 through 2024, despite the overhanging risks of a recession, with Saskatchewan and Alberta projected to lead the growth, says the Conference Board of Canada. A drought in Saskatchewan pulled down GDP in the region last year, but a major recovery is expected for 2022. The board projects real GDP to reach 7.6 per cent this year in the province driven by increases in the commodity sector and 4.1 per cent growth in 2023. Likewise, the commodity price increase is having a positive impact on Alberta, with GDP projected to reach 4.9 per cent in 2022, 3.5 per cent in 2023, and 2.4 per cent in 2024. Manitoba’s GDP should grow by 4.2 per cent in 2022, 2.9 per cent in 2023, and 1.9 per cent in 2024. British Columbia has a diverse economy, but global and national currents will continue to influence its course over the coming years and growth will slow. The board forecasts GDP for the province to grow by 2.6 per cent this year, 1.9 per cent in 2023, and two per cent in 2024. Ontario, feeling the impact of high inflation and rising interest rates, has reason for optimism as investments from governments and businesses will help boost the economy during the slowdown. The province’s economy is slated to grow 3.9 per cent in 2022, 1.7 per cent in 2023, and 2.2 per cent in 2024. Quebec will face growing headwinds throughout the rest of the year and is projected to grow 2.9 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent in 2023. Newfoundland and Labrador will see the smallest expansion in Canada this year, with GDP growth of 0.5 per cent in 2022, 2.9 per cent in 2023, and 2.2 per cent in 2024. Prince Edward Island’s GDP should grow 3.7 per cent in 2022, 1.7 per cent in 2023, and 1.9 per cent in 2024. Despite having the highest inflation levels in the country, the region saw employment levels hit an all-time record in June, with the biggest gains in construction and manufacturing. Nova Scotia continues to rebound from the economic slowdown and is forecasted to see GDP growth of 3.2 per cent in 2022, 1.5 per cent in 2023, and 1.6 per cent in 2024. Driven by interprovincial and international migration, New Brunswick has seen its population grow at the highest rate since 1976. The province is projected to have GDP growth of 2.3 per cent in 2022, 1.3 per cent in 2023, and 1.4 per cent in 2024.