National Home Sales Entering ‘Turnaround’

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for national home sales activity and suggests the downward adjustment from rising interest rates and high uncertainty may be in the rear-view mirror. With the shock from the Bank of Canada's efforts to control inflation fading, and uncertainty about the path for housing markets and where borrowing costs will ultimately land also likely to wind down over the next few months, the theme of CREA’s 2023 forecast is not recovery, but the start of a turnaround. It will likely remain quite difficult for many first-time buyers to enter the housing market until mortgage rates are lower. However, some buyers are expected to come off the sidelines once they have more certainty rates have topped out. Others will likely find 2023 the first opportunity in some time where they're not having to compete with multiple offers. Roughly 495,858 properties are forecast to trade hands via Canadian MLS Systems in 2023, a 0.5 per cent decline from 2022. National home sales are forecast to rise by 10.2 per cent to 546,625 units in 2024 as markets continue to return to normal. This would still be below the 2020 and 2021 figures.