November Home Sales Edge Down

National home sales were down on a month-over-month basis in November, declining 3.3 per cent compared to October, says the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). This decline more than erases October's small gain and rejoins the moderating sales trend that began back in February. About 60 per cent of all local markets saw lower sales in the month, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, BC; Edmonton, AB; the Greater Toronto, ON, Area (GTA); and Montreal, QC. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in November came in 38.9 per cent below a near-record for that month last year and stood about 13 per cent below the pre-COVID-19 10-year average for November sales. The number of newly listed homes edged down 1.3 per cent on a month-over-month basis in November. In terms of monthly new supply, the bigger picture is listings are not flooding the market. With the one exception of 2019, November 2022 saw the fewest new listings for that month in 17 years. With sales down month-over-month by a little more than new listings in November, the sales-to-new listings ratio eased back to 49.9 per cent compared to 50.9 per cent in October. The ratio has remained close to around 50 per cent since May. The long-term average for this measure is 55.1 per cent.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, about 70 per cent of local markets are currently in balanced market territory.