NRF Forecasts Six Per Cent Sales Growth

The National Retail Federation (NRF) anticipates U.S. retail sales will grow between four per cent and six per cent in 2023, to reach between $5.13 trillion and $5.23 trillion. The 2023 figure compares with seven per cent annual growth to $4.9 trillion in 2022. The 2023 forecast is above the pre-pandemic rate of 3.6 per cent. Furthermore, non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 10 per cent and 12 per cent year over year to a range of $1.41 trillion to $1.43 trillion. While many consumers continue to utilize the conveniences offered by online shopping, much of that growth is driven by multichannel sales, where the physical store still plays an important component in the fulfillment process. As the role of brick-and-mortar stores has evolved in recent years, they remain the primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70 per cent of total retail sales. NRF projects full-year GDP growth of around one per cent, reflecting a slower economic pace and half of the 2.1 per cent increase from 2022. Inflation is on the way down, but will remain between three per cent and 3.5 per cent for all goods and services for the year.