Pro sales to lead US home improvement spend increase

The Home Improvement Research Institute (HIRI) has forecasted US home improvement spending will pick up in 2024 following two years of decelerated growth with professional sales leading the increase. The total home improvement products market is expected to climb 2.7 percent in 2024, with the consumer market growing by 3.3 percent and the professional market growing by 1.4 percent.

After two years of double-digit growth in the home improvement market, economic pressures slowed category activity from 2022 to 2023. Today, consumer sentiment continues to rise with disposable income and equity gains, which has buoyed consumer spending on home improvement. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in 2024, which will provide tailwinds for home improvement spending.

Top-growing merchandise lines for consumers will be:

• Soft-surface floor coverings

• Hard-surface floor coverings

• Other building materials

• Paint and preservatives

• Roofing and supplies

These merchandise lines will see compound annual growth (CAGR) rates between three percent and six percent in 2025 through 2028.

For the professional market, HIRI forecasts sales will grow at a slower pace than sales among consumers, but still increase 1.4 percent in 2024. Additionally, HIRI projects home sales will pick up 6.3 percent in 2024 following a decline of 19.3 percent in 2023. Due to this rebound, growth in professional market home improvement sales is expected to accelerate faster by 2025 and to average around six percent compound annual growth rate in 2027 and 2028.

Top-growing merchandise lines for professionals include:

• Lawn and garden equipment and supplies

• Nursery stock and soil treatments

• Tools

• Hardware

• Major household appliances

These merchandise lines will see CAGR between four percent and five percent in 2025 through 2028.